Libya

[David Bailey]

So, looks like we've got ourselves another war.

Thoughts?

[Prian]

The 9/11 attacks were not as many Americans (and others), believe, directed at freedom, democracy or Christianity (though it is the impression the culprits wanted to create). They were against commerce, military and the U.S. Government.

Similarly the war against Afghanistan and Iraq is not about attacking Islam (though some would have us believe it is). It is about natural resources. Oil in particular.

It should also be noted that groups like Al Queida, the Taliban et al are not Muslims though they claim to be. I mean that their actions are in direct opposition to the teachings of the Quoran and Mohammad. Even the wearing of the veil is not a Muslim ideal it is man-made.

I worry that all this violence in the Middle East will result in more fundamentalism. Mubarak and Gaddafi may appear to have been brutal dictators that oppressed their people (ok so there may be some truth there), but what will they be replaced with. Iraq is a very good example. Some might say that the Iraqi people are now worse off than under Saddam. It was not the breeding ground for fanatics before the war started because Saddam was secular. The war has created a passionate dislike for the West.

As Omid Djalili said "the fanatics are just trying to put the fun back into fundamentalism. Unfortunately they have forgotten the mental part."

[Maxine]

Most wars are about land or resources but are thinly veiled in religion or idealism. There is nothing new there.

I agree in a way with some of what you have written about what happens next; will there be more fundamentalist regimes in the Middle East but is that an excuse for allowing leaders that do not represent the will of the people? Who at times brutalise them – I don’t think so but I do feel a degree of trepidation, for what I to come

[David Bailey]

I'm ambivalent about this.

On the one hand I want Something To Be Done to help the poor sods in Libya who are being - and let's be clear - massacred by a brutal, ruthless and (worst of all) intelligent dictator determined to hang on to power by any means necessary, no matter how much blood he has to spill in the process.

I'm also glad that a lot of work has gone on behind the scenes diplomatically to ensure that this is a legal, international, authorised action, and that it's clearly going to involve Arab countries in a primary role, so that this is a genuine coalition effort, supported by the neighbouring countries.

Thirdly, this is clearly not a George Bush-style "throw the military at it and see what happens" adventure. It's good to see that Obama is not as dumb or incompetent strategically as Bush was, although admittedly that's a fairly easy bar to hurdle.

On the other hand...

I'm not convinced that a No-Fly Zone will accomplish much - I'm not even sure that attacking ground forces from the air will be that effective. I remember how difficult it was to get rid of Slobodan Milosovic in the 90s through air power, and that was with full-on bombing raids against the entire country's infrastructure.

Also, it's arguably too late - two weeks ago might have pushed Gaddafi over, now it's more a question of protecting an enclave of resistance.

Thirdly, we seem to have carelessly sacked a lot of our, you know, pilots and stuff recently. Possibly gutting the RAF, in hindsight, was a bloody stupid thing to do.

Fourthly, there's plenty of other hotspots in the area - plenty of other autocratic regimes with leaders happy to use force against their own people to retain power (Bahrain, Yemen, etc.). Are we planning to intervene in all of them?

Finaly, Christ, not another war? In the Middle East? Because those always end well...

[Dreadful Scathe]

It should also be noted that groups like Al Queida, the Taliban et al are not Muslims though they claim to be. I mean that their actions are in direct opposition to the teachings of the Quoran and Mohammad. Even the wearing of the veil is not a Muslim ideal it is man-made.

If a religious group is political then its because that is their agenda, their religion is secondary even thought they claim that it is their priority. This is true for Christian America, middle East Muslims or any other group.

[Prian]

One cannot, of course justify Saddam. But he is a good example. The whole missile story was just an excuse to get his oil. But in doing so Iraq has been made an even more dangerous place to live where more civilians have now died than under Saddam's rule.

It is also interesting that George Bush's personal company has recently completed an oil pipeline through Afghanistan and it is planned to run through Iraq and after that Iran. Keep an eye on developments there.

[Dreadful Scathe]

intelligent dictator determined to hang on to power by any means necessary

Have you noticed - he looks more like a waxwork than a human. This is the human and this is the waxwork.

I'm also glad that a lot of work has gone on behind the scenes diplomatically to ensure that this is a legal, international, authorised action, and that it's clearly going to involve Arab countries in a primary role, so that this is a genuine coalition effort, supported by the neighbouring countries.

Makes a fekkin change doesn't it. Done right? Surely not!

It's good to see that Obama is not as dumb or incompetent strategically as Bush was, although admittedly that's a fairly easy bar to hurdle.

To extend the high jump analogy further; my 2 year old could jump that

Finaly, Christ, not another war? In the Middle East? Because those always end well...

Hopefully, liberating without destroying the infrastructure is the order of the day. Unlike Iraq which was blow up everything and send civilisation back 50 years in the process.

[David Bailey]

Makes a fekkin change doesn't it. Done right? Surely not!

As the moment, this feels like a just war. But then, I thought that about Afghanistan.

On the plus side, it feels totally different to Iraq, which I knew was damn stupid, right from the start. Actually, this one feels more like Gulf War I, in the 1990s, which I think is a good example of how to build a coalition.

That doesn't necessarily mean it'll turn out well, but having the backing of the Arab League is a very good start I think.

To extend the high jump analogy further; my 2 year old could jump that

Whenever I get annoyed at Obama, I make myself remember what his predecessor was like, and then suddenly everything seems rosy. It's like magic

[Gav]

in doing so Iraq has been made an even more dangerous place to live where more civilians have now died than under Saddam's rule.

Tell that to the Kurds and the Shiites!
It may be dangerous in Iraq, but at least now there is no official policy of elimination of over two-thirds of the population to satisfy the paranoid minority ruling party.

[David Bailey]

Tell that to the Kurds and the Shiites!
It may be dangerous in Iraq, but at least now there is no official policy of elimination of over two-thirds of the population to satisfy the paranoid minority ruling party.

Whilst the Iraq war was illegal, unjustifiable and of course screwed-up in a massive way, I think Iraq now is better than Iraq then, for most people. That doesn't make it good, and the cost in human life was horrible. But it's done now.

Anyway, loathe though I am to say it, I think Cameron's done a damn good job - he pushed for the right action, hard and early, and he's got international and local backing for it. I think he's been proven right in doing so.

He's still a bloody Tory though.

[Prian]

Tell that to the Kurds and the Shiites!
It may be dangerous in Iraq, but at least now there is no official policy of elimination of over two-thirds of the population to satisfy the paranoid minority ruling party.

True

Though did you know that the first time a chemical weapon was ever used on a civilian population was when Winston Churchill used it...... to move the Kurds as part of the creation of Iraq.

And, the first time the word terrorism was used, was..... when Winston Churchill suggested that a campaign of organised terror be conducted...... to move the Kurds as part of the creation of Iraq.

I wonder where Saddam got his ideas from.

[Gav]

Though did you know that the first time a chemical weapon was ever used on a civilian population was when Winston Churchill used it...... to move the Kurds as part of the creation of Iraq.

However, that is an un-proven allegation, rather than a fact.
It is well documented that Churchill was for the use of chemical gas against uncivilised populations, however, there's no evidence to prove that it was actually used.

[Prian]

However, that is an un-proven allegation, rather than a fact.

Ok.

But I thought this was interesting.

http://www.iraqwar.org/chemical.htm

[philsmove]

. That doesn't make it good,

War is never going to be "good"

Also, it's arguably too late -:

The UN is not noted for make quick decisions but this time, at least they have acted

The UK, the French, the US and others, have not been sitting idle. According to the BBC, AWACS and aircraft carriers are already in position

[David Bailey]

So, back on Libya:
- Tornados and Typhoons are to be deployed, plus refueling tankers (let's hope the Typhoons work...)
- I'd guess they're to be deployed from Italian bases (Sicily?) or possibly Malta. It'd be a bit silly to try to operate from Cyprus when there are friendly bases much much closer.
- There'll be a full Commons vote on Monday, and Cameron will publish the Attorney General's advice in full before that vote (and you gotta admire the way he can twist the knife into Blair's Iraq war "vote" there ), but there will almost certainly be some actions before then, so I guess the vote is a "confirmation" rather than "decision".
- NATO countries seem to be falling over themselves to donate forces to the operation. I didn't even know Belgium had an air force

It also looks like Gaddafi is making full efforts to subdue (level) Misrata at the moment, I suspect he's given up on any hope of Benghazi, and wants to consolidate the whole of the west of the country. So airstrikes at the forces around Misrata would seem sensible, if you want to protect civilians. In fact, scratch that, I think he's basically using all his assets, in full, before they get shot down, in the hope that the gains he makes now can be held.

He may even be right.

[JiveLad]

The way it's looking I have a feeling that Gaddy will still be in power at Xmas; I hope I'm wrong but it looks like a long, drawn out exercise.

Maybe it would be quicker (and cheaper) to send in Bourne to kill Gaddy and his son.....

....as it is a lot may depend on the fidelity of Gaddy's supporters in Trip.

[David Bailey]

The way it's looking I have a feeling that Gaddy will still be in power at Xmas; I hope I'm wrong but it looks like a long, drawn out exercise.

I suspect that the intervention will create, in the long term, an opportunity for the rebels to catch their breath, get organised, and develop a proper strategy, whilst building up their own forces with the help of other countries of course.

For the moment, at the least, we've clearly stopped a massacre in Benghazi, and we may also have saved Misrata. So that's created some protection for nearly 2 million people, in the space of a day or two, I'd say that's a good days' work.

Of course, the tricky question is what to do if (when) the rebels counter-attack. But at least this intervention means that they can counter-attack.

[Gav]

Oh dear.
We appear to have gone too far, again.
With the no-fly zone turning into actual attacks on Libyan installations, we're starting to lose the support of the Arab nations, which was essential to getting through this without it turning into another PR disaster.

[Trouble]

Send in Jack Bauer - he'll sort them out.

All I know is that this Friday, i was deducted;

£1400 in tax from my salary.
I paid £70 to fill up my car.
I ordered a gift for one of the girls 50th birthday and paid 20% VAT on it
and im sick of it.

[Dreadful Scathe]

All I know is that this Friday, i was deducted;

£1400 in tax from my salary.
I paid £70 to fill up my car.
I ordered a gift for one of the girls 50th birthday and paid 20% VAT on it
and im sick of it.

The average vat rate in Europe is about 20% so it's probably about time we had the increase after this recession thingy. Although banks having to be rescued due to their own incompetance is hardly our fault, so it would be nice if the government did something about the banking industry.