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Thread: What could kill MJ?

  1. #81
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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    sorry for the typos missed the 0 (and the f as in effing buterflies Mrs W) should have been 1 in 160 (about 40 million I was reckoning) which is still unlikely
    Ah. Fair enough. I was wondering if you really thought that the adult population of the UK was 4million, or whether you'd just gotten the sums wrong. A typo would explain it too.

    (PS. Sorry to have not said hello last Friday. Was just so busy dancing, and then had to run off at 11pm to catch the last bus home. Shame the cabaret took up so much dancing time really Did either of them dance with anyone else after I'd left?)

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    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    way over inflated
    250000 people socially dancing each week? 1 in 16 of the adult population?
    over 1000 events per week? (to put that in context, Jon White's Uk-Jive web site lists about 30 MJ dances per weekend so even if he's only got half of them listed we're well short of 1000)
    1 in 160, and yes - that doesn't sound completely unreasonable to me.
    Ceroc states there are 55K regular ceroc dancers on their website. Given that there are more MJ-ers who don't do Ceroc, I assumed 100K regular MJ-ers throughout the country, and the other numbers kind of flowed from that.

    It's possible that these numbers are too high, certainly. But I based them on estimates from the numbers thread, so they're not completely made up, there is a little bit of data behind them. But I'm not married to them or anything, I'm happy to revise estimates based on any real information somewhere... :plaintive icon:

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by TheTramp
    (PS. Sorry to have not said hello last Friday. Was just so busy dancing, and then had to run off at 11pm to catch the last bus home. Shame the cabaret took up so much dancing time really Did either of them dance with anyone else after I'd left?)
    Unfortunately we didn't make it - still got the tickets here - Julia (Saxylady) was proper poorly

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Every year thousands of new students arrive at Universities in places like Bristol and Cambridge knowing very few people there. Pretty high on their agenda is getting to know members of the opposite sex. The dance class is one instant solution. These classes have built their position over many decades. The attendance at these dance classes is unrepresentative of the normal situation throughout the country.

  5. #85
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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames
    Major = more than a dozen people in a little room somewhere.
    How far can I get? Say 5-7 miles? That gives me Finchley (2 nights / week, say 300 people in total), Ashtons (200 people?), and from next week Muswell Hill (XXX, but hopefully lots). OK, that's 4 venues then.

    Now, there may well be lots of ballroom dancing going on in the local area - I know for a fact that there's a lot of teaching going on. But I don't know of any large ballroom dancing social events. Again, this could be mainly due to my ignorance of the scene. But I know there are line dancing, salsa dancing, AT dancing and other social scenes in some of the venues I've been to, and I can't recall seeing any ballroom dancing socials there.

    Don't get me wrong; I think this is a real shame, and I would love it if ballroom dancing had a vibrant local social scene, that's one of the things that might persuade me to take it up. But AFAIK it doesn't. Loads of classes, but not much fun, is my biased impression.

    And I still don't know how many dancers there are in the UK.
    I do generally agree you that the problem is the social scene, (though I didn't recall your area being a desert exactly)

    A quick check, (just pre Strictly Come Dancing) comes up with these during the week. I'm sure some have opened and closed in the mean time, but given the boost from SCD I'd be surprised if there was less around.

    5-7 miles got you on Mondays-Fridays during the evening only (taking West Finchley tube as a base).

    Monday - Brent Town Hall (big venue)
    Tuesday - Borehamwood - Allum Hall (also a big venue)
    Wednesday - Dancing Club LA - Finchley
    Kentish Town - Daphne Harris - Luther Tyndale Church Hall
    Thursday - Enfield - St Stevens Church Hall
    Friday - Enfield - St Stevens
    Friday - East Finchley - Dancing Club LA - Bishop Douglas High School
    Friday - Finchley - North London Dance - Christ Church Hall

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    Unfortunately we didn't make it - still got the tickets here - Julia (Saxylady) was proper poorly
    I'm sorry to hear that. Hope she's feeling better (soon if not already)

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Bullying

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    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Hi Andrew, and welcome!
    Quote Originally Posted by AndrewMc
    Bullying
    Can you explain?

    Quote Originally Posted by frodo
    I do generally agree you that the problem is the social scene, (though I didn't recall your area being a desert exactly

    { snip list }
    Excellent - thanks for that, where'd you get the list from?

    Quote Originally Posted by bigdjiver
    Every year thousands of new students arrive at Universities in places like Bristol and Cambridge knowing very few people there. Pretty high on their agenda is getting to know members of the opposite sex. The dance class is one instant solution.
    I'm shocked, shocked I say, to hear you imply that male students would have an ulterior motive for learning to partner dance. I certainly never did.

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Tessalicious
    Your Central London venue example is what I meant - supporting my point that any individual knowing one particular area is still not necessarily going to be able to make an accurate assessment of total numbers dancing in that area, let alone outside it, from their experience alone.

    Umm, well ... I have danced Salsa in London on numerous occasions in the past (Bristol isn't that far away and many of the best teachers are based in the London area). I've also danced Salsa a bit in the Midlands (also not far away for me).

    I accept entirely David's comments about the attendees at the Central London Salsa clubs.

    But my knowledge of the London (and national) salsa scene is a lot wider than just those!

    And my comments were related to the overall scene - if you want to start analysing individual clubs then you will, of course, find a lot of individual variations. I think all this prooves is that only London is big enough to make clubs like those financially viable.

    And it's well known in the Salsa scene that you either go to them (if you are a guy) to pick up those giggly girls or you go to them with your own partner or with a (mixed) group of friends.

    You don't go to them to spend the evening dancing with whoever happens to be there in the manner that you do at a MJ event (or most other Salsa events). They are really ordinary nightclubs with a Salsa theme.

    Andy

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames
    That makes sense - and would imply that, in somewhere like London, where hiring a hall is expensive, you'd probably find that large-scale ballroom-dancing events are not economical, as most people wouldn't want to pay £20-£30 for a night's dancing...
    Yep, I agree. Ballroom is already a lot more expensive than MJ to do.


    That's because they're Evil.
    Hmmmm.........

    Andy

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    [QUOTE=clevedonboy]way over inflated
    [quote]

    Actually I think not, Andrew. There really are that kind of numbers of dancers about - You haven't yet scratched the surface of the dancing community as a whole (and Lindy Hop is a fairly minority dance interest anyway).



    I don't think Ceroc / MJ will be killed off - it's popularity will wane and part of that will be due to Ballroom's newly polished profile.
    To a long time dancer like me MJ actually still has a lot of attractions. However what will happen (and already is) is that we will introduce moves and footwork into MJ from other dances. We will/are also make the dance more improvisational rather than just dancing the named move combinations that most MJ teachers trot out.

    This might be a problem for existing teachers (especially within the Ceroc franchise) as they may well not have the skills to teach the kinds of thing the more advanced dancers are actually doing on the floor. I say especially within the Ceroc franchise since (I understand) Ceroc teachers are trained by the franchisor to teach specific move groups rather than to teach dance on a more general sense (there's another recent thread about advanced dancing which airs some of this subject area) and they might well have difficulty breaking away from that when the time comes. And it's probably not that far away.





    Of course Lindy Hop will soon resume it's place as the dominant dance form and all other dancers will then realise the errors of their ways
    Another matter entirely,dear boy ....

    Andy

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by Andybroom
    Yep, I agree. Ballroom is already a lot more expensive than MJ to do.


    Andy
    Not necessarily - Eric's classes in Bristol are £5 per person so compares with average MJ. He charges £5 admission to his Ballroom dances again compares well.

    In fact I'd go further and say it's better value in some ways - Avon Amateurs charge £5 per couple for their practice nights at the Somerset Hall in Portishead (costs £30 per hour to hire) & their Xmas bash cost £12 a head including dancing, a lovely buffet (with pudding!) and a 30 minute cabaret from Darren & Lilia.

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    In fact I'd go further and say it's better value in some ways - Avon Amateurs charge £5 per couple for their practice nights at the Somerset Hall in Portishead (costs £30 per hour to hire) & their Xmas bash cost £12 a head including dancing, a lovely buffet (with pudding!) and a 30 minute cabaret from Darren & Lilia.

    So how does that work then?

    In other words, how does that square with the "ballroom dancers need more space" thing (which seems to be fairly well-accepted)?

    If you can get say 50 ballroom dancers in a room that'd hold 150 MJ-ers, how can ballroom dancing generally be competitive value from a dancer's point of view? Are the profit margins for organisers so much less? Or are the venues / nights generally cheaper? Do ballroom dancers drink more expensive drinks?

    I'm not disputing the figures (and that Xmas bash sounds great!), I'm just curious as to how it can compete on purely financial terms, given the 3:1 ratio quoted. Even a 2:1 ratio would be quite a disadvantage I'd imagine.

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    I don't think anyone makes any money from the AA practice nights 3 hours dancing = £90. You don't need a DJ & there's no teacher so to cover costs you need an average of 20 couples

    Andy - I might not have scratched the surface bu the maths doesn't add up On daves figures 100K MJ dancers need say 500 social events per week, where are they?

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    Andy - I might not have scratched the surface bu the maths doesn't add up On daves figures 100K MJ dancers need say 500 social events per week, where are they?
    I dunno, no-one tells me anything.

    The figures may well be suspect.

    According to ceroc.com, there are 84 Ceroc venues in the UK - 13 in Scotland, 3 Northwest, 2 Northeast, 26 in London, 35 in the Southeast and 7 in the Southwest - but I know for a fact that this is an underestimate, I'm sure there are more around, and some venues run on more than 1 night. So call it 125 nights a week of Ceroc, and (say) 100 nights a week of non-Ceroc MJ (?), and say 25 freestyle nights, for around 250 nights of MJ per week in the UK.

    Even assuming a high attendance (200 per session), that only gives 50K Mj-ers per week...

    Ah-ha! Looking around ceroc.com, the "55,000" is Ceroc dancers per month, not per week. Which seems a bit more reasonable given the above back-of-an-envelope calculations. So, we should adjust figures accordingly (or move goalposts to define "regular" as meaning "once per month" )

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames

    Ah-ha! Looking around ceroc.com, the "55,000" is Ceroc dancers per month, not per week. Which seems a bit more reasonable given the above back-of-an-envelope calculations. So, we should adjust figures accordingly (or move goalposts to define "regular" as meaning "once per month" )
    but are they unique punters or the same ones going to different events?

    It's reasonable to say there may be 100000 paying MJ customers per month but of course it's the same people going to many events.

    One reassuring thing though is that if we're more widely spread we'll be harder to find if someone wants to kill us off

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    well here's a little theory.... as venues rise and fall here's some of the traps that kill MJ

    1) Bad music, to fast to slow, gendre, DJs who believes in their own myth.
    2) Bad sound systems, to distorted, under rated, overpowerd (upsets the locals).
    3) Floor, to slippery (Torvil & Dean syndroome), unclean and sticky (fly paper syndrome.
    4) Not a good gender balance male to female ratio.
    5) Uncaring management team of the venue, who remain aloof and elusive notseeing the wood for the trees and addressing the issues.
    6) Seniors needed to put something back in to inspire, motivate, befriend the newbies when all those ''can't do' thoughts are running through their minds.

    if your not part of the solution your part of the problem, so lets not allow it to happen to this wonderful sport.

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    but are they unique punters or the same ones going to different events?
    The exact quote from ceroc is "55,000 people learning every month". OK, that's ambiguous, but I take it to mean 55,000 "unique visitors" rather than 55,000 "hits" (can you tell I've been looking at weblogs today?)

    Quote Originally Posted by clevedonboy
    One reassuring thing though is that if we're more widely spread we'll be harder to find if someone wants to kill us off
    Yep, good safety precaution that. Exactly what I was thinking...

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames
    Can you explain?

    It's an Australian thing.

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    Re: What could kill MJ?

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames
    ...
    Excellent - thanks for that, where'd you get the list from?...
    A quarterly publication called Dance Diary. I subscribed to it for a year, and made quite a bit of use of it at the time.

    http://www.dancesport.uk.com/dancediary/

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