Probably because I'm not there.
Probably because I'm not there.
Local week nights seem to have struggled and a few have closed down. A few have opened up, however, don't know what their attendance figures are like. But this is mainly hearsay - I hardly ever go any more.
The most local night went through a very poor patch but numbers are better now. Still not a patch on those nights a decade ago when the joint was jumping every Wednesday, people drove from miles around and I wouldn't have missed it for anything.
My impression is that weekly nights are a means to draw in beginners and those who wish for a pleasant and unchallenging mid-evening out, but experienced dancers make a lot more effort to go to weekend freestyles and weekenders.
I think, with the current economic climate, people are certainly being more picky about where they dance on a regular basis. With petrol prices a lot higher, taxes up, and general inflation up so much, people are bound to feel a pinch on their finances. And when people feel the pinch, they start cutting down on the non-essentials - and for a lot of people, that is bound to be dancing.
I've noticed many people at regular venues I visit tend to appear on a 2 or 3-weekly basis now rather than weekly, or others have cut down from 2-3 venues a week to only 1, or just visit freestyles.
This is quite anecdotal, of course, but you can't help but notice trends like these when only a year or two ago the pool of weekly regulars was larger and more obvious.
Last edited by DJ Mike; 1st-June-2011 at 10:59 AM.
Exactly that..
If you are running a specialist, or more challenging mid week night it can only work with a small, cheaper venue as numbers will naturally be more limited.
The cost of petrol combined with the general financial climate means that more experienced dancers are travelling less and also being more selective about the regular freestyles they attend. They also seem to be aiming more of their financial resources at weekenders.
Really? Perhaps this is where I'm going wrong!
Anyway....I've not noticed any decline in numbers at my regular venue. They put their prices up by a pound at the beginning of the year but that doesn't seem to have put anyone off. The only possible exception is the one Thursday per month that is the day before the monthly Friday freestyle - that tends to be unusually quiet. But that might just be because people are feeling older and deciding they can't handle two late nights in a row
Is there really a decline in demand?
I've only been dancing in the UK for the last four years (at least in recent history, anyway). Even in that time, there seems to have been a notable increase in the number of events and classes. With increased events (supply), you would expect that average attendance at each event would decrease but total attendance (demand) could well stay the same or even increase.
I'd also expect a demand crest as the number of events grows - people will try everything out. As life takes over, this would drop as each person focuses on the ones they get the most value from and don't go to everything. I'd expect this to happen in a growing market of this type, regardless of other factors. I know that if a new regular freestyle or class started up within reasonable driving distance of me, I'd probably go a few times and see what it was like. But if I didn't like it, I'd stop going.
This is one of the common problems and paradoxes with competition. To give an analogy: my local shops used to have three wine shops. No doubt they all opened in response to increasing demand for wine over time. However, it seems there wasn't enough total demand to sustain all three. What that meant was that none of them got enough custom through the door and all three closed within a few months of each other. I suspect there was more then enough demand to sustain one or even two of these shops, but because there were three, it meant all three failed.
I don't know any numbers on this in MJ - so most of what I've written is speculation. But the point that just because individual promoters are struggling (even if all of them are struggling) doesn't necessarily mean the MJ scene is struggling.
My general impressions are as follows;
1. Week-enders still seem to be doing well. It will be interesting to see if some of the less popular ones start to see any drop off in numbers.
2. Well run free styles where the organisers go that extra mile are on the whole as popular as ever, but....
3. People are thinking twice about travelling any great distance and are dancing more locally. I'm still prepared to travel to events with pedigree but I'm unlikely to travel any distance on the off chance, just to see what a venue is like. For me it either has to be a known quantity where I have had good experiences in the past or something new that is offering something seriously tempting (such as a great line up of DJ's, 2 or more rooms etc.)
One or two venues have suffered from declining numbers over the last year or so and the odd one has been closed, however others I visit have seen an increase in numbers and there have even been new venues opening in some parts of the country.
It's inevitable that the economic climate will have some effect - most people are less well off than they were 12 months ago and dancing is discretionary spending. Historically however dancing is an activity which thrives during recessions because it is a relatively cheap way of feeling good (compared to say a meal out in a restaurant or a visit to a health and beauty spa) so MJ is likely to be less affected than one might think. Another important factor is that dancing in general has a much higher profile and a better image than it did a few years ago thanks to Strictly and SYTYCD. Consequently it is now seen by more people as an aspirational activity rather than being very much a minority hobby that most people wouldn't even consider participating in.
So there are good reasons for believing that MJ will fare relatively well during this recession but as with any business wanting to do relatively well in a recession, franchisees will need to work that bit harder to deliver a product which best meets the needs of customers and offers good value for money. Customers with less cash in their pockets are bound to be a bit more choosy about when and where they spend it.
Last edited by Lost Leader; 1st-June-2011 at 12:08 PM.
It's a very good point and one that I don't think a lot of people appreciate when they talk about the 'benefits' of competition.
Actually there is a very good short series of post on this thread HERE that talks about exactly this. I wish I knew who Kazd was as I would shake her by the hand!
Well, all sorts of people go to all sorts of events. But it's noticeable that many people who were regulars years ago are now mainly to be seen only at weekend events. They may have been supplanted by a newer cohort of dancers who just attend absolutely everything but they haven't been picked up by my radar yet. Happy days, I wish i could still do it!
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Attended a class on Bank holiday Monday
it was very well run, excellent teachers, superb floor, beautiful venue, good play list, quality sound system and lighting, no gender balance issues, plenty of free on site parking.
It was absolutely packed
With the high price of petrol etc,
I think people are becoming a lot more choosy. classes or events, that are not up to the mark, are going to fail, but those delivering a quality product, seem to be doing very well
Geoff is talking sense - for once
From our own point of view, we've enjoyed some of our best attendances in the last few month. Class numbers are mostly up and freestyles are getting record numbers. What I have seen in the last few months is a decline is the number of brand new beginners.
I think the number of dancers in terms of total footfall is up. However, the number of classes has also risen. This means people are being spread a bit more thinly.
There are a number of classes where the numbers are very low and seem to be 'struggling'. These classes are not viable businesses, they are the organisers hobby. Sometimes an expensive hobby. Those of us who are in the dance business have to bear in mind that there are people in competition with us who have this different frame of reference - they stay open when their business is making a loss and they often complain to their customers about the business-like tactics of their competitors
Dancers do seem to be staying more local - possibly due to the increase in fuel prices. Staying local doesn't affect the size of the market, so long as there is a local class. But it does affect the a dynamic of the market and it does mean you need to adjust your marketing strategy.
However, I see evidence that people will still travel for something different or special. We run a Tuesday class and a 'Smooth' Sunday in the same venue. The 'normal' Tuesday class is thriving with people who travel a fairly short distance. The Sunday class gets a very different kind of dancer, some of them travelling over 50 miles each way. Last Sunday we had people from Kent, East Sussex, West Sussex, Surrey, Hants and London - one regular couple who'd been staying near Eastbourne had detoured 60 miles to Worthing on their way back to Cambridge!
I think that consumers are being given more choice by the increase in classes. In our area we now have around 10 organisers where we had less than half that number 5 years ago and only 2 and a half (hearted) organisers 10 years ago. On a Wednesday night in our area there's loads of choice with 4 Wednesday classes in West Sussex and more in East Sussex & just over the border in Kent - all but one of the Wednesdays seem to be thriving! People are having trouble getting any Thursday classes established - everyone went dancing on Wednesday!
The other thing I've observed is that the market for freestyles is fragmenting. Not only are there more freestyles on the same Friday or Saturday night, there's a wider choice of types of freestyle in terms of music or venue. It's no longer enough to open your doors, put out some chairs and play some pop music & some MJ standards on a crackly sound system. You've got to offer a difference and you've got to offer quality. In the Southampton area they're currently offering such a big 'difference' it's getting a bit silly with people finding more and more bizarre venues to whet the appetite of dancers.
Also, as is often stated, Ceroc is an entry level dance. Some people do it for a while and then move onto something else, sometimes WCS, in my case AT. I do still go, but not every week and don't actually do either class anymore (I got bored). I'm more likely to go to a freestyle or a weekender now. Maybe there is a natural turnover.
One thing that I've noticed at the last few freestyles I've been to is that although I see a fair few guys I know, either through here or classes, I hardly see any women I know now. I used to be able to have a girly chat, I miss that. The boat on Monday it was like that, and the last couple of Hammersmiths I've been to as well.
Rocky is obviously thinking about the same event as me.
I only dance & guest teach in the Southampton area from time to time so I don't know all the detail. But it does seem to be getting very competitive since Ceroc purchased MoJive's venues. In terms of product quality, this change has been a wake-up call for the local organisers and has resulted in many improvements - which is great for customers
I think that many Ceroc Franchisees make a substantial income from workshops. As long as there enough new intake to fill those and make freestyles profitable there is little incentive to go out and sell Modern Jive. Owners/Franchisees are using all their time and earning a good living, why try harder to promote Mj, create a buzz?
Interesting subject
When I first went to ceroc about 1994 the beginners moves were very beginners and you could probably see no more 50-100 moves
Went to Bicester 2011 and the beginners moves seem to be more on par with old intermediate moves
How many moves are there now 800 and counting ?
Introducing some of these new moves ,seems to me to over complicate things
In addition there was an extra class (less free style) for a ‘advance move’ .
You know the type unless you did advance chorography you would never be able to do in freestyle.
Is ceroc for getting what made it so popular ie its Basic Jive
If I read as they advertise it is a fusion of Salsa,Ballroom,Hip Hop Tango and Jive would I ever have gone to the first lesson ?? Mute point
Of course it might just be the petrol
I'm the same. I don't know why but weekly class nights don't really appeal to me that much any more.
I tend to just go to FreeStyles and Weekenders nowadays
Thinking about it, maybe its generally become a downward spiral. Less experienced dancers go to class nights, attracting less experienced dancers, which may or may not, have a knock on affect on the less experienced dancers.
I remember back myself, I loved watching and dancing with people who inspired me and that was what kept me coming back at the time.
If I started now, I'm not sure I'd feel the same thrill but then again, maybe its all relative?
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