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Thread: scd probability of tie

  1. #1
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    scd probability of tie

    The grandkids are at the other gran for Christmas, so we had Christmas with them yesterday. So today I am free to give a geeky oresent to anyone that might want it (which may be nobody)

    I have criticised other simulations of the scoring which gave a guesstimate of tie probability. As a rust removal exercise I did my own Excel one.

    I filled a cell with =simul(.95, .8, 0) and copied it down, repeated in the next column with slightly different parameters as guesses, representing a different pair..

    simul is a VBA function with three parameters, probabilities, each varying from 0 to 1. the degree of perfection of the dancer, the correlation between judges with the strictest one, and a "jitters" factor.

    This is very quick and dirty programming.

    Function simul(skill As Single, judgement As Single, jitter_coef As Single) As Single

    Rem /************************************************** **************************************/
    Rem /*
    Rem /* The dance is split into 100 time intervals
    Rem /* During each interval there is a chance that the dancer will make an error
    Rem /* This chance depends on the current skill level
    Rem /* skill level is the probability of completing an interval without making a scoring error
    Rem /* A scoring error loses one point from the severest judge
    Rem /* There is a significant chance that the next severest judge will also deduct a point
    Rem /* and a lower chance that the other judges will also deduct a point.
    Rem /* this chance is simulated as judgment to the power of judge number.
    Rem /* If judgement is .9 then there is a 90% chance that the severest judge will deduct a point
    Rem /* and around 65% chance (.9^4)that the most generous will.
    Rem /* The judges will be less likely to deduct points the lower the contestant is scoring
    Rem /* The contestant is assumed to be judge 5, the least able to detect errors,
    Rem /* and the most forgiving.
    Rem /* However if the contestant does realise their error they will suffer the 'jitters'
    Rem /* and be more likely to make another soon after.
    Rem /* Their skill level will drop by a jitter factor, which rapidly fades with time passing.
    Rem /* jitter fades by half each subsequent time interval
    Rem /* However more mistakes will increase the jitter factor.
    Rem /* A contestant may be capable of a perfect score, or of a disasterous dance.
    Dim current_skill As Single
    Dim I As Integer
    Dim j As Integer
    Dim score As Integer
    Dim jitter As Single
    judgement = 0.8
    current_skill = skill
    jitter = 0
    score = 40
    jitter_coef = 0.3

    For I = 1 To 100
    If Rnd() > (current_skill - jitter) Then
    score = score - 1
    For j = 1 To 3
    If Rnd() < (1 - judgement) ^ j Then
    If Rnd() < score / 40 Then
    score = score - 1
    End If
    End If
    Next
    If Rnd() < (1 - judgement) ^ 4 Then
    jitter = jitter + jitter_coef
    End If
    Else
    jitter = jitter / 2
    End If

    Next

    simul = score

    End Function

  2. #2
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    Re: scd probability of tie

    So who is going to WIN ????

  3. #3
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    Re: scd probability of tie

    Quote Originally Posted by under par View Post
    So who is going to WIN ????
    I refer you, good sir, to the yuletide spoiler SCD thread, that I stumbled into with 3/4 of my mind upon Christmas.

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