I don't see that he'll win because he's African American. Yeah, 90+% of blacks are going to vote for him, but 80+% of blacks would vote Democratic anyhow, so it hasn't won him much there. You can bet there are a lot more whites who, when push comes to shove, won't vote for a black guy.
You only have to look at what the Republicans have done over the last eight years (approval of torturing suspects being a particular low water mark) to see lots of other reasons people might prefer Obama to another Republican.
If you ask me, McCain looks a lot creepier. There's this extract from a book:
[N.B. There doesn't seem to be a lot of proof this actually happened, but there is a youtube video of someone asking McCain if it's true and he basically evades the question rather than denying it].Originally Posted by Cliff Schecter in "The Real McCain"
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