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Thread: A fine line between Man and Monster

  1. #101
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    Dodgy Niblets?

    Sometimes you make these comparisons and they are total nonsense. It's like the one you did some time ago on the Scietology thread about one mouldy piece of bread or summit.

    Dodgy niblets don't rape and kill people, f..f..s.....!

    As for the question you asked Gav. I don't have any facts and figures but I understand why you asked the question. You are saying that there is a very small chance indeed of being murdered. You might as well be talking Dutch...any risk is a bad one.

    What you don't address is how many unsolved murders and rapes there are. There might be only a small chance of these terrible things happening, but think of all the parents of dead daughters who will spend the rest of their days wondering who killed their daughter and crying themselves to sleep at night because their precious daughter is dead and the person who did it is free to do as he (ok...maybe she) likes.

    A risk, even a small one is good enough reason for me and I do understand all your arguments about privacy and all that, but I just believe personally that my privacy is less important that that small risk.
    The question is one of balance: balancing the risks of torture/rape/murder with the threat to individual liberty of handing private data over to the state.

    I also think it's wrong to say that any risk of murder is bad, if by that you mean that extraordinary methods of reducing that risk must be implemented. For example, many people in the USA believe that state-sanctioned murder - viz. execution - is justified because of its deterrent effect (others just want to see wrongdoers punished as severely as their pretty mean imaginations can conceive). If it can be demonstrated that there is no deterrent effect (which IMHO can be done by showing that murder rates are not statistically different between death sentence states and life sentence states) then the death penalty should be abandoned because it doesn't have enough of a deterrent effect to warrant the damage it does to a society to be killing its criminals. When such execution policies lead to killing people who are - I don't know, what's the current politically correct phrase? educationally sub-normal - then it becomes disgracefully cynical and shameful.

    If you want to volunteer your DNA details, then fine. But surely you don't think that's going to help to catch any criminals? So what's the point? And that's one of my objections.

  2. #102
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by StokeBloke View Post
    Why do the police need a warrant to search your home? Why can't they just kick anyone's door in at 4am and search the place? If they're innocent they have nothing to hide. Why can suspects only be detained for a short period before they have to be charged? If they are innocent they have nothing to hide. Why do the police need a warrant to look at your bank account? If you're innocent you have nothing to hide.


    Very powerfully put.

    We have safeguards which have taken centuries to acquire, from habeus corpus in 1215 to the Data Protection Act of the 1990s. The last thing that we should be doing is surrendering any of those safeguards. Just as the atmosphere of concern (verging on panic) surrounding the recent (and fairly trivial, taking the long view) successes of islamic terrorism should not see us surrendering the very civil liberties that those same terrorists would like to take from us by force, and which is why a 42 day remand period is too long.

  3. #103
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    If men are usually always to blame for murder, rape and general pain to others, why don't they just DNA test men?
    "Usually always"? Now there's a crime against the English language.

    National Statistics Online

    In 2002, men committed 80% of all crime in the UK. Women committed the other 20%.

    The government is starting a "positive discrimination" campaign to ensure that, despite being less proficient than men in criminal matters, women still have equal access to prison. Prison is seen as a gateway to a successful career in crime, with prison graduates often going on to make more money out of crime than non-graduates. It is therefore important that we get the number of female prisoners much higher, so that we don't limit the options of young women. The government is also trying to raise the profile of female role models for young criminals, in a new TV campaign entitled "lie back and think of murder".

  4. #104
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    "Usually always"? Now there's a crime against the English language.
    hehehe...! How wonderful, another forumite who likes to pick holes in poor use of the English language.


    YAWN

  5. #105
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    hehehe...! How wonderful, another forumite who likes to pick holes in poor use of the English language.


    YAWN
    {Thinks}I wonder who she's thinking of...?

  6. #106
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    How wonderful, another forumite who likes to pick holes in poor use of the English language.
    I only do it because people with poor use of English are usually always to blame for murder, rape and general pain to others.
    Hence the phrase: "its a Fare kopp!!!!!!!!!".

  7. #107
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    Two questions.

    First, what do you suppose the risk of haing your "loved ones [...] raped, tortured, mutilated and murdered" actually is, right now? In proper arithmetical terms. (Clue: number of people who suffer those things over number of people who live from birth to death without suffering any of those things).
    If we look at ‘crime’ that effects people rather then 'emotional' headlines, people can suffer if there love one gets mugged etc

    5.5 million recorded offences in England and Wales result in someone being punished per year.

    Street crime and armed mugging are on increase - Times Online

    Assume for the person who got punished 10 people were affected by it. Probably higher but lets stick to 10

    So we are at 55 million i.e. nearly the whole UK population were effected by ‘crime’. Ill add ‘3m’ for unrecorded crime (again probably much higher). So we get 58,000,000


    assume pop is £58,000,010

    So we have say

    Crime
    -----------
    Population


    58,000,000
    ----------
    58,000,010 = 0.9999998%


    So the risk of being effected by crime per year is 99.999998%

    How did I do

  8. #108
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    If we look at ‘crime’ that effects people rather then 'emotional' headlines, people can suffer if there love one gets mugged etc

    5.5 million recorded offences in England and Wales result in someone being punished per year.
    Violent crime was "only" 1.2 million though, and violent crime involving serious wounding is just under 19000.

    The number of actual murder/manslaughter cases usually hovers a bit under a 1000.

    So your 5.5 m figure might slightly overestimate the chance of a loved one being "[...] raped, tortured, mutilated and murdered". Particularly if you note the "and" in that quote.

    [Though you make some good points otherwise].

  9. #109
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    If we look at ‘crime’ that affects people rather then 'emotional' headlines, people can suffer if their loved one gets mugged etc

    5.5 million recorded offences in England and Wales result in someone being punished per year.
    Very smooth, the way you move from "...loved one gets mugged..." to "5.5 million recorded offences [resulting in conviction]."

    Most of those will be traffic offences, and most of those will be speeding; others will be no insurance, no MOT, no VEL, no driving license. Many of the other offences will have no victim whatsoever - being drunk in a public place, resisting arrest, possession of drugs (note: not possession with intent); many will have no discernible human victim: insurance fraud, shoplifting, non-payment of council tax, and so on ('the shareholders of a large insurance company or supermarket' I am excluding from my definition of 'discenible human victim' because none of them are aware of the crimes taking place, other than noting - if they bother - the provision for losses due to crime in the accounts).

    So your basic figure - 5.5 million - is a pile of horse puckey.

    Assume for the person who got punished 10 people were affected by it. Probably higher but lets stick to 10
    1. Why 10? Why not 2? or 200? What's the basis? 10 seems to me to be very large even if you are talking about a murder.
    2. What do you mean be 'affected'? By one definition, there are almost 50 million people affected by the disappearance of Madeline McCann alone, given that we read and heard about it ad nauseam for 9 months.
    3. A more rational definition of 'affected' by a crime would be immediate relatives and anyone else present. I think that's likely to be far less than 10 (average), more like something between 3 and 6.
    So we are at 55 million i.e. nearly the whole UK population were effected by ‘crime’. Ill add ‘3m’ for unrecorded crime (again probably much higher). So we get 58,000,000
    Add 3 million? Why? Why not 25,000? Why not 25,000,000? Why not start with figures for all reported crime to start off with, rather than the figure for convictions?
    assume pop is £58,000,010

    So we have say

    Crime
    -----------
    Population


    58,000,000
    ----------
    58,000,010 = 0.9999998%


    So the risk of being effected by crime per year is 99.999998%

    How did I do
    And the chance of being bamboozled with utterly spurious statistics is 100%
    Otherwise you did pretty good

  10. #110
    Registered User stewart38's Avatar
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    a) So your basic figure - 5.5 million - is a pile of horse puckey.


    b) Why 10? Why not 2? or 200? What's the basis? 10 seems to me to be very large even if you are talking about a murder. A more rational definition of 'affected' by a crime would be immediate relatives and anyone else present. I think that's likely to be far less than 10 (average), more like something between 3 and 6.


    c) Add 3 million? Why? Why not 25,000? Why not 25,000,000?

    And the chance of being bamboozled with utterly spurious statistics is 100%
    a) Not my figure, I got it from the Times

    b) I'd like to think if someone got murdered it would 'affect' at least 10 people , relatives friends etc. If you want 3 thats fine but im talking about general population not billy no mates type person

    c) Agree 3m far too low would suggest 50% of crime goes unreported (e.g your typos) so happy to have 25m

    Now whats my score out of 10 ??


    I've prove the whole nation is a victim of crime with faultless 'rationale'

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    I've prove the whole nation is a victim of crime with faultless 'rationale'

    Not I...crimes against fashion and logic, maybe...

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Tiger Feet View Post
    Not I...crimes against fashion and logic, maybe...
    Im working on my wardrobe

  13. #113
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by David Franklin View Post
    Violent crime was "only" 1.2 million though, and violent crime involving serious wounding is just under 19000.

    The number of actual murder/manslaughter cases usually hovers a bit under a 1000.

    So your 5.5 m figure might slightly overestimate the chance of a loved one being "[...] raped, tortured, mutilated and murdered". Particularly if you note the "and" in that quote.

    [Though you make some good points otherwise].
    Agree 1.2m for 'violent crime of the worst order' with 19,000 for serious wounding , nice to have the facts for once

    I stand corrected

  14. #114
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    a) Not my figure, I got it from the Times
    Blimey, I'm used to people not following my logic but not to them having problems with their own!!

    You used the figure of 5.5 million convictions as the starting point for determining who's been affected by crimes. The figure in the Times may be correct, but not as the basis for your calculations, because most of the crimes would have no victims and affect no-one other than the perpetrator.

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    b) I'd like to think if someone got murdered it would 'affect' at least 10 people , relatives friends etc. If you want 3 thats fine but im talking about general population not billy no mates type person
    Until I know what you mean by 'affect', I've no idea whether I agree with you.

  16. #116
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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    Until I know what you mean by 'affect', I've no idea whether I agree with you.
    Say for murder , other people crying for 2 weeks on and off ??

    I think you will find I agree with DF figure of 1.2 million as a more accurate figure of SERIOUS brutal live changing crimes rather then 5 million

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    Cool Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    I can't wait to finally get these statistics sorted out once and for all
    Last edited by StokeBloke; 30th-June-2009 at 03:11 PM.

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    Say for murder , other people crying for 2 weeks on and off ??

    I think you will find I agree with DF figure of 1.2 million as a more accurate figure of SERIOUS brutal live changing crimes rather then 5 million
    I suspect even 1.2 million as 'brutal life changing crime' is high.

    To put it in perspective, that would be one person in every forty suffering as the victimof a 'brutal life changing crime' each year, with one person in two being a victim after only two decades.

    A violent crime includes everything from simple assault through to rape and murder. A simple assault can consist of nothing worse than a slap. Highly objectionable, to be sure, and something up with which we should not put, but hardly something to place on the same level as 'rape torture and murder'.

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by StokeBloke View Post
    That's something of an urban legend, I'm afraid. Detailed research has shown that 85% of kittens actually have a detrimental - or even destructive - effect on threads, chiefly down to their well-disguised but exceedingly violent sides to their natures which have been proven to manifest when a thread is put before them.

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    Re: A fine line between Man and Monster

    Quote Originally Posted by straycat264 View Post
    That's something of an urban legend, I'm afraid. Detailed research has shown that 85% of kittens actually have a detrimental - or even destructive - effect on threads, chiefly down to their well-disguised but exceedingly violent sides to their natures which have been proven to manifest when a thread is put before them.
    Yeah, but that's an urban legend in its own right - you've probably mstaken one of those escaped minks for a kitten at some point.

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