How representative is the Forum?

[Ghost]

Leaving aside the whole Ashton's aspect

We should not forget that the ‘right’ to express an opinion is very different to expressing an opinion of any value.

The Forum membership also represents less that 1% of the National population of MJ dancers and the ACTIVE people who post – for this read, those members who like the sound of their own voices, therefore represent around .01% of the MJ population.

The Forum is also known for being a place that likes to post criticism and is also full of people being sycophantic and luvvy – this unfortunately over rides the useful stuff posted…

I'm sorry to have to break it to you but, given the above, you can see that’s because most of the people in MJ Nationwide believe your views are actually pretty irrelevant in the scheme of things. You represent less than 0.01% of the MJ community and although you consider yourself to be important because you’re a customer you actually DON’T represent the vast majority of customers who attend MJ events Nationwide… sorry but that’s a matter of FACT.

The obvious questions are

Why does the forum ban advertising if it would only reach such a small proportion of people?

How valuable are forumites to a venue? It was recently pointed out to me that a lot of Forumites have been dancing for over 5 years. I'd suggest that the "younger ones" are often the eager ones who want to do workshops and are more likely to stick around in the long term.

I tend to work on the "For every person who actually bothered to post x amount agree with them but didn't post for a variety of reasons"

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with Rocky here - I'm happy with "I don't actually know" as my answer; I'm just interested in the perspectives of different people and if those who runs businesses broadly agree and if those who don't broadly disagree.

[ducasi]

I voted for all 4 – but for a reason.

Yes, we are representative – there's a big chunk of people who post on this forum and even more who don't who I think "represent the average Cerocer on the whole".

That said, most of the big posters aren't representative – for the very reason Rocky gives. A handful of people isn't going to be representative of anything.

So over-all, I'm not sure. What you say about the silent complainers is absolutely true. Most times you see a complaint on this forum, there'll be a number of others who have the same general or specific complaint.

Anyway, Merry Christmas. Here's your present.*


* Note that this was almost 3 years ago, and the "demographic" of the forum has undoubtedly changed.

[Lynn]

I don't think the forum is representative at all.

But I don't think forumites are as irrelevant as Rocky implies.

I think people do read the forum who don't post.

And there are often a good number of forumites at large events or more 'specialised' events - enough at times to be a bit more than 'irrelevant'.

For example I think over 100 voted to say they would be at the last Southport. That's certainly more than the 'less than 1%' of MJ population that Rocky was quoting.

But then again that's not a Ceroc event. There is more to the MJ world than Ceroc, but sometimes some people maybe forget that...

Even in the Ceroc world surely a look around the blues rooms at weekenders and big events would indicate more than '0.01% of active posters' present. Dare I say it, even at a Utopia event?

So at times, it might be worth listening to their opinions...

[bigdjiver]

Actually it is Rocky's opinion that is irrelevant. An opinion can be held by a single individual, and can be factually wrong, and yet be useful.

e.g Clouds are made of smoke - wrong. Clouds are lighter than air - wrong. If we fill a paper bag full of enough smoke it might rise up - wrong. The Montgoflier Brothers tried it and discovered that it was the associated hot air that rises, and built the first passenger carrying balloon.

"Sire, I cannot get the smallpox, for I have had the cowpox." (A milkmaid to Dr. Jenner, who went on to develop the first vaccine.) The right few words in the right ear can change the world.

[dave the scaffolder]

I think the forum can be very informative in bad and good ways. The thread that Rocky posted on and has been copied to open up this one was read or hit by over 800 people but those people did not all post obviously.

Overall the two posts together relating to Ashtons had over 1200 hits.

That is quite a large figure to dismiss as irrelevant in my opinion.

People take their own views away from just reading as well as people that post have their own views. Neither are less or more important than the other.

[Andy McGregor]

I am not a "Cerocer".

This is an unfortunate term and is based on a brand name. You might as well say that someone who regularly eats at a well know burger establisment is a Burger Kinger or a McDonalds'er

Ceroc is a brand name. It is not something you do or are.

Rant over :phew:

[Lory]

What is an average Cerocer? Who knows?

Maybe it's someone who just goes to his local class, once a week?

Maybe they have a multitude of hobbies and dancing is just one of them?

Maybe the average cerocer has been dancing less than 2 years.

Maybe they only own ONE pair of dance shoes?

Maybe they've never heard of Southport?

And only go on one weekender a year?

Maybe they don't know the meaning of musicality or what WCS is?

Maybe they still mix with friends who don't dance?

Nope, I don't think forumites are representative of the average bread and butter Cerocer.

But then again, we might not represent the average but I do think we have the majority of the top dancers and teachers, as members. As well as some of the most enthusistic.

[Andy McGregor]

Maybe they only own ONE pair of dance shoes?

I suppose I could count them. But I already know how many pairs I have - NOT ENOUGH!

But then again, we might not represent the average but I do think we have the majority of the top dancers and teachers, as members. As well as some of the most enthusistic.

[Rocky]

For example I think over 100 voted to say they would be at the last Southport. That's certainly more than the 'less than 1%' of MJ population that Rocky was quoting....

Umm... Ceroc have over 90,000 active members and if we add up the rest of the MJ scene that's going to take it in excess of 100,000 active MJ dancers. So a response of 100 people is representative of a lot less that 1% of total MJers - in fact it's around .01%

Actually it is Rocky's opinion that is irrelevant. An opinion can be held by a single individual, and can be factually wrong

Except it IS factually correct.

Overall the two posts together relating to Ashtons had over 1200 hits.
.

I think you'll find that 'hits' is different to independant views that represent different people viewing. For example, the same person could view the same thread 100 times - so the impact of any particular thread is not as widespread as you would think.

Anyway.. has no-one realised the irony of posting a thread that asks, 'How representative is the Forum' on the Forum itself!

That's very funny...

[Lynn]

Umm... Ceroc have over 90,000 active members and if we add up the rest of the MJ scene that's going to take it in excess of 100,000 active MJ dancers. So a response of 100 people is representative of a lot less that 1% of total MJers - in fact it's around .01%.

I was talking about a response of 100 people at event of about 1500 or so and you know I was - why start quoting other figures?

Though if Ceroc have 90,000 members, and I see a lot of the same faces at weekenders, that means that the weekender market is a very, very tiny part of Ceroc - only about 2-5% max.

So the forum is perhaps more representative of the more enthusiastic dancers who attend several weekenders a year, dance several times a week etc, rather than those who go just once a week to a local venue.

I don't see why this would make them less relevant though - surely you'd want to listen sometimes to people who attend more events than the 'average' dancer.

[ducasi]

Umm... Ceroc have over 90,000 active members and if we add up the rest of the MJ scene that's going to take it in excess of 100,000 active MJ dancers. So a response of 100 people is representative of a lot less that 1% of total MJers - in fact it's around .01%

I think you are misunderstanding what "representative" means.

Here's an abbreviated definition...

representative |rɛprɪˌzɛntətɪv|
adjective
1 typical of a class, group, or body of opinion : these courses are representative of those taken by most Harvard undergraduates.
• containing typical examples of many or all types : a representative sample of young people in the South.

I'd say that the forum "contains typical examples of many types" of MJ dancer in the UK, wouldn't you?

When a polling company does a poll to see who people might vote for in an election, they ask way, way fewer than "0.01%" of the voting public. Out of ~40 million people they ask a few thousand.

However the sample they choose is designed to be representative of the whole population. They do this by asking a wide cross-section of the population.

Do you not think that this forum has a fairly wide cross-section of the MJ dancing population? While it might be a little "top-heavy" in that the casual dancer is likely to be under represented, based on ESG's survey a couple of years back, and a bit of a guess, I'd say that the forum is in part a representative cross-section of at least the more experienced population of MJ dancers in the UK.

As such, it should not be ignored by event organisers who wish to know at least what a fair chunk of his or her customers are thinking.

[Rocky]

But then again, we might not represent the average but I do think we have the majority of the top dancers and teachers, as members. As well as some of the most enthusistic.

Love you Lory, but you're wrong!

There are a few top dancers and teachers on here, but they certainly don't represent the majority.

For example, are Nigel and Nina, Ryan and Jenny, Joseph and Trish, Andy and Rena, Tas and Adam, Viktor, Simon Selmon, Paul Warden, Dan Baines, Cat, Lee, Mick, etc. etc. regular contributors to the Forum? Umm.. no, and yet these people really do represent many of the top teachers and dancers across a variety of dance genres in the UK that regularly teach on the MJ scene.

Now, why do you think that is? It's for all the reasons I mentioned previously on the Ashtons thread. If the Forum and its members were truly representative and were influential within the MJ scene as a whole they'd consider it to be important to be members too wouldn't they?

That said, there ARE some events where Forum members represent a larger proportion of dancers than usual and that's why the organizers that run those events are regular contributors too. But again, the number of these events represent a tiny proportion of the overall number of events run Nationwide on an annual basis.

However, what you do have on the Forum is most of the top DJ's in the Country..

AND some of the most talented and enthusiastic whingers!

[Andy McGregor]

Umm... Ceroc have over 90,000 active members and if we add up the rest of the MJ scene that's going to take it in excess of 100,000 active MJ dancers. So a response of 100 people is representative of a lot less that 1% of total MJers - in fact it's around .01%

Rocky hasn't considered the use of sampling. You don't ask all members of a population for their opinion in anything but a census. You ask a sample. If you want the view of the whole population you stratify your sample so that it represents the whole population. If you want a view of a segment of a population you take a sample from that segment. The size of your sample often depends on your budget. The bigger your sample the greater your confidence that it represents the population you are studying.

When quantitatively reserching the medical world, which I know very well, you would only need to sample the views of 200-400 GPs from a population of around 40,000 (rounded to aid my calculations). Taking a bigger sample gives you no more, gainful, information. That means you'd only sample between 0.5% and 1% to get the views of the whole populaton of GPs.

Then you have to consider that the forum is mostly about debating a topic. Not conducting a quantitative survey. This means that we are talking about qualitative analysis rather than quantitative analysis. This means you are asking the membership of the forum for their views on a given subject. There's only a finite number of points of view - you can only look at a subject from so many angles. When you are seeking different points of view you need a much smaller sample. If, for example, you were looking for GPs differing points of view on the treatment of hypertension, you'd find that you got no new information once you'd spoken to 20 - 30. Sometimes you get nothing new after the first 8-10 interviews! Of course, you may wish to quantify how many people hold the same point of view - that's where quantitative research is used.

Bearing in mind what I've said above, I think the population of this forum is a reasonable mix of people who will present most of the points of view held by the population of Modern Jivers. However, I do not believe that the population of this forum is a representative sample of the whole of the Modern Jive population because it seems to be skewed towards the more experienced dancer. That doesn't mean that beginners views aren't expressed on here, they are: it just means that the proportion of beginners vs experienced dancers is different from the general population of Modern Jivers.

Finally, as nobody has said that the population of this Forum represents the views of MJ as a whole it is evident that Rocky's argument is a spurious one. Maybe he's just looking for a fight - or maybe it's a bit too complex a debate for him to understand

[Lory]

Love you Lory, but you're wrong!

And I love you too!

For example, are Nigel and Nina, Ryan and Jenny, Joseph and Trish, Andy and Rena, Tas and Adam, Viktor, Simon Selmon, Paul Warden, Dan Baines, Cat, Lee, Mick, etc. etc. regular contributors to the Forum? !

But, don't most of those teachers teach either Lindy or WCS, not MJ?

[Rocky]

I think you are misunderstanding what "representative" means.

Here's an abbreviated definition...



I'd say that the forum "contains typical examples of many types" of MJ dancer in the UK, wouldn't you?

When a polling company does a poll to see who people might vote for in an election, they ask way, way fewer than "0.01%" of the voting public. Out of ~40 million people they ask a few thousand.

However the sample they choose is designed to be representative of the whole population. They do this by asking a wide cross-section of the population.

Do you not think that this forum has a fairly wide cross-section of the MJ dancing population? While it might be a little "top-heavy" in that the casual dancer is likely to be under represented, based on ESG's survey a couple of years back, and a bit of a guess, I'd say that the forum is in part a representative cross-section of at least the more experienced population of MJ dancers in the UK.

As such, it should not be ignored by event organisers who wish to know at least what a fair chunk of his or her customers are thinking.

What you are missing Ducasi is that members of the Forum self select themselves for membership - which is entirely different to polling a cross section of MJers as a whole. People who feel the need to seek commuinity by membership of a public Forum are a very particular kind of person - so by definition this is not representative of the MJ community as a whole who choose NOT to be a part of it.

I forget who said it on here orginally, and you're not going to like it, but it definitely has a ring of truth about it - and that is:

'Those that CAN really dance and CAN really teach, do it - those that can't, talk about it...'

There are a handful of notable exceptions on the Forum, but that in essence is why its not taken seriously by the majority on the outside who look in occasionally, have a snigger at what goes on and then with a sigh of relief log off never, ever return..

[Andy McGregor]

I think you are misunderstanding what "representative" means.

Here's an abbreviated definition...



I'd say that the forum "contains typical examples of many types" of MJ dancer in the UK, wouldn't you?

When a polling company does a poll to see who people might vote for in an election, they ask way, way fewer than "0.01%" of the voting public. Out of ~40 million people they ask a few thousand.

However the sample they choose is designed to be representative of the whole population. They do this by asking a wide cross-section of the population.

Do you not think that this forum has a fairly wide cross-section of the MJ dancing population? While it might be a little "top-heavy" in that the casual dancer is likely to be under represented, based on ESG's survey a couple of years back, and a bit of a guess, I'd say that the forum is in part a representative cross-section of at least the more experienced population of MJ dancers in the UK.

As such, it should not be ignored by event organisers who wish to know at least what a fair chunk of his or her customers are thinking.

You beat me to it

[Rocky]

And I love you too!

But, don't most of those teachers teach either Lindy or WCS, not MJ?

Yes they do, but they have been known to teach fusion dances that incorporate MJ and some do teach at regular nights in partnership with MJ companies and also teach at many MJ based w/e events.

[Rocky]

You beat me to it

Then you were wrong too!

[Rocky]

Lot's of stuff... that is not applicable to quantifying the Forum itself....

And, as I've already said...

Anyway.. has no-one realised the irony of posting a thread that asks, 'How representative is the Forum' on the Forum itself!

That's very funny...

[Andy McGregor]

What you are missing Ducasi is that members of the Forum self select themselves for membership - which is entirely different to polling a cross section of MJers as a whole. People who feel the need to seek commuinity by membership of a public Forum are a very particular kind of person - so by definition this is not representative of the MJ community as a whole who choose NOT to be a part of it.

This is a very twisted view. Some of enjoy debate. Some of enjoy heated debate. Others enjoy chatting about dance. Some enjoy the social scene that the Forum creates. There are as many reasons for taking part as there are people who take part.

To say that there is a single reason why people join the forum and a single reason why they choose not to join is simplistic ...

.. and then I remembered it was Rocky

I forget who said it on here orginally, and you're not going to like it, but it definitely has a ring of truth about it - and that is:

'Those that CAN really dance and CAN really teach, do it - those that can't, talk about it...'

There are a handful of notable exceptions on the Forum, but that in essence is why its not taken seriously by the majority on the outside who look in occasionally, have a snigger at what goes on and then with a sigh of relief log off never, ever return..

After posting that I'd be surprised if we ever see another post from Rocky.