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Thread: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

  1. #21
    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    Results like that normally arise when a political activist gets it and forwards it to the entire SNP mailing list urging them to vote.
    Where are the labour activists – off at the party conference?

    Really, they often have polls with a similar flavour that you might expect a party activist to try and spike. Usually the results are a lot more balanced.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    I was looking for proper polls - I had a quick look at YouGov and MORI, but couldn't see anything divided by region...

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    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    I was looking for proper polls - I had a quick look at YouGov and MORI, but couldn't see anything divided by region...
    Here you go...

    But the [Labour] party is struggling in Scotland and Wales, in the wake of the SNP's victory in this year's elections to Holyrood, dropping from 43% in 2005 to 36% now. That suggests Mr Brown may delay an election because he fears losing seats to the SNP.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    Interesting - thanks.

    I'm not sure what that translates to in seat-terms, however - and I can't see the actual data.
    In 2005, Labour had 41 seats, SNP 6. Even if the SNP tripled their seat numbers at the expense of Labour, that'd still only lose 12 Labour seats.

    Given that the poll also says that the Tory support has increased in the SE of England, and that's where most of the marginals are, I'm still of the view that London / SE England is the main battleground (but then I would say that - in fact, let's face it, Finchley is where it'll all be decided )

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    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    From what I've read and heard on the telly, most of the action will indeed be down south, but if it turns out to be that close-run, then the loss of a few Labour seats in Scotland could make all the difference.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Yeah - under normal circumstances, the LibDems would be in a great position, with the prospect of a hung parliament. But it looks like they'll be hammered by the Tories on current showing, so they'll have less of a bargaining position.

    Hmmm, I wonder what the odds are on a Labour-SNP coalition....

  7. #27
    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    Hmmm, I wonder what the odds are on a Labour-SNP coalition....
    I'd say they vary from very, very low up to just about a snowball's chance in hell.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    I think you'll find that a lot of Labour votes were lost in Scotland because of the anti- Blair sentiment. I think that Gordon Brown will win back a lot of support in Scotland. Mr Salmond should make the most of his term as First Minister, as I don't think it will be a long one.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Dance Demon View Post
    I think you'll find that a lot of Labour votes were lost in Scotland because of the anti- Blair sentiment. I think that Gordon Brown will win back a lot of support in Scotland. Mr Salmond should make the most of his term as First Minister, as I don't think it will be a long one.
    You could be right there.

    A lot of people were just tired/bored of Blair irrespective of his dodgy decisions.

    Gordon Brown is playing the Novelty card at being Prime Minister and is buying himself some time. Plus he is a Scot and this appears to matter a lot north of the border.

    Have you noticed that they all start on the same theme?
    "Where there is doubt . . . faith
    Where there is despair . . .hope
    Where there is darkness . . . light"

    If only they delivered half of their promises.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Raul View Post
    Gordon Brown is playing the Novelty card at being Prime Minister and is buying himself some time.
    I don't think that is the case at all. I couldn't stand him at first, but he is growing on me. Far from being a novelty, I like him more all the time.

    That speech he gave yesterday was dynamite & they said on the news last night that there are only two types of people in the country at the moment. Those who think GB is a great leader and those who think he is an absolutely brilliant leader.


    I'm sure you would like to differ on that view.

  11. #31
    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    That speech he gave yesterday was dynamite & they said on the news last night that there are only two types of people in the country at the moment. Those who think GB is a great leader and those who think he is an absolutely brilliant leader.
    It's called a "bounce", or a "honeymoon" - Tony Blair's honeymoon lasted well over a year.

    GB's getting a good spin from the media at the moment, they're calling him "calm" rather than "absent" during a crisis, for example.

    But the thing about honeymoons is, they end.

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