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Thread: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

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    David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    I've never been sure who to vote for. I've always thought it's a case of trying to choose between the best of a bad lot.

    For the first time ever, I know who I will vote for in the next election. I'm using the words of another (Tony Parsons) to explain why I'm so certain.

    Gordon Brown can fight him now or fight him later, but David Cameron will never be Prime Minister of this country.

    Whenever the general election comes, it will leave Caring Cam and his compassionate tuck shop chums as a little puff of greeny-blue smoke, wafting back to West London.

    The British people have seen through Cameron and discovered that the only thing he truly believes in is getting elected.

    He came out of the starting blocks very cocky, acting as if he was the true smooth heir to Tony Blair, while Brown would prove to be too old, too Scottish and with not enough of the toothpaste grin.

    Cameron is perceived as a shallow opportunist. Who can ever forget the image of Cameron paddling up the Pimpopo to save Africa just as the floods ravaged middle England?

    If Gordon Brown called an election now he would bury Cameron. But Brown could wait until next year and he would still annihilate Cameron. There will be no come back for Lord Snooty and his chums. Cameron will never be PM. Brown has faced an enormous number of dramas since taking office - terrorism, floods, foot and mouth and the queues outside northern rock - and he will face more.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Double Trouble View Post
    Brown has faced an enormous number of dramas since taking office - terrorism, floods, foot and mouth and the queues outside northern rock - and he will face more.
    Hmmm, I can't help noticing that most of these crises were at least partially-caused by the (in)actions of the previous Labour Government, in which Brown had some minor role I believe?

    • Terrorism - well, if we hadn't pushed our noses up Bush's backside in 2002...
    • Floods - well, if we hadn't cut our flood defence budget...
    • Foot & mouth - well, if we had an effective vaccination strategy after last time....
    • Northern Rock queues - well, if the Treasury / BoE had acted proactively a couple of months ago...


    I agree Cameron's a twit, but I don't believe Brown's particularly good - all he's done in a crisis is keep away from the TV cameras so far, and he's suddenly got this reputation for superb crisis management?

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    I agree Cameron's a twit, but I don't believe Brown's particularly good - all he's done in a crisis is keep away from the TV cameras so far, and he's suddenly got this reputation for superb crisis management?
    They are all politicians, which in my book makes them a questionable type to begin with, but I like Brown. He just seems to want to get on with the job in hand.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    I agree Cameron's a twit, but I don't believe Brown's particularly good - all he's done in a crisis is keep away from the TV cameras so far, and he's suddenly got this reputation for superb crisis management?
    As a previously card carrying member of the Conservative Party I have to agree with this

    IMHO there is little to choose between the current New Labour and the party I think the Conservative Party should be. However, I think that New Labour has lost it's way and no longer represents the people who put them there. And, for that reason alone, I believe they are not fit to rule. Unfortunately I also think that the Conservative Party have not found a leader who we'd like to have run our country

    I'm hoping that the Conservative Party will produce a "New Leader" who inspires the people rather than runs around looking for photo opportunities. Unfortunately, I feel a bit like the damsel waiting for her prince to come.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy McGregor View Post
    As a previously card carrying member of the Conservative Party I have to agree with this

    IMHO there is little to choose between the current New Labour and the party I think the Conservative Party should be. However, I think that New Labour has lost it's way and no longer represents the people who put them there. And, for that reason alone, I believe they are not fit to rule. Unfortunately I also think that the Conservative Party have not found a leader who we'd like to have run our country

    I'm hoping that the Conservative Party will produce a "New Leader" who inspires the people rather than runs around looking for photo opportunities. Unfortunately, I feel a bit like the damsel waiting for her prince to come.
    ( Except the card carrying bit)

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Gav View Post
    ( Except the card carrying bit)
    But emphatically the bit about the damsel

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy McGregor View Post
    But emphatically the bit about the damsel

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    In Scotland, Labour haven't been doing too well of late. The success of the new SNP Government means that there's likely to be a swing away from Labour towards the SNP in the next UK election amongst Scottish voters. There are other factors at work, but the end result may be that there are fewer Scottish Labour MPs – meaning that the SNP could win the election for the Tories. Now wouldn't that be ironic?!
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. – Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    In Scotland, Labour haven't been doing too well of late. The success of the new SNP Government
    Don't you mean "Executive"?

    (Shows how dumb the Westminster Labour MPs are, considering it was "their" Labour-controlled administration which started using the term "Government", and then whingeing because Salmond grabbed the opportunity)

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    means that there's likely to be a swing away from Labour towards the SNP in the next UK election amongst Scottish voters.
    Does it, though? I'm not aware of any public Scottish-area polls regarding UK voting intentions, got any links?

    One could argue that success in the Scottish parliament might not mean success in the Westminster parliament (and vice versa) - presumably the SNP want a beefed-up Scottish parliament rather than Westminster representation...

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    There are other factors at work, but the end result may be that there are fewer Scottish Labour MPs – meaning that the SNP could win the election for the Tories. Now wouldn't that be ironic?!
    Absent dramatic polling evidence, I can't see there being a major shift to the SNP in a UK election, as there aren't that many marginals in Scotland.

    If you look here, you see that out of the top 50 Labour marginals, the vast majority of them have the Conservatives in second place - and there's only one SNP in that lot.

    From that list, it looks like SE England is the key battleground - which is not much of a surprise.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    If you look here, you see that out of the top 50 Labour marginals, the vast majority of them have the Conservatives in second place - and there's only one SNP in that lot.

    From that list, it looks like SE England is the key battleground - which is not much of a surprise.
    That's a list of marginals post-2001. Last I heard we also had a general election in 2005, so it's out of date. Can't find an equivalent post-2005.

    On the general point I agree (the UK government will ultimately be decided by marginal votes in the SE), but the Scottish electoral scene is undeniably more volatile at the moment. Bigger voting swings may happen, particularly if Brown tries to oppose more powers for Holyrood. There's something like 75% support for that up here - even the Labour group at Holyrood accepts that.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Andy McGregor View Post

    IMHO there is little to choose between the current New Labour and the party I think the Conservative Party should be. However, I think that New Labour has lost it's way and no longer represents the people who put them there. And, for that reason alone, I believe they are not fit to rule. Unfortunately I also think that the Conservative Party have not found a leader who we'd like to have run our country
    If there is little to choose between the two main parties, then there is more opportunity for the Social Democrats to elect a good charismatic leader to offer the voters a "real choice".

    They can give lip service to "caring for the needy" and keeping the UK independent from "US warmongering policies". ... etc until they somehow get elected and then do the same thing as their predecessors.

    It makes you wonder whether the Status Quo is so strong that it survives whoever is in power or whether the politicians just do whatever is easiest once they are in.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Raul View Post
    the Status Quo is so strong
    Is Rick Parfitt standing for PM?


    I've changed my mind....I vote for Rick....!

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart M View Post
    That's a list of marginals post-2001. Last I heard we also had a general election in 2005, so it's out of date. Can't find an equivalent post-2005.
    Oops, sorry, meant here:
    UK Election 2005: Labour marginal constituencies

    But it's the same picture - only 1 Lab / SNP marginal in the top 50.

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart M View Post
    On the general point I agree (the UK government will ultimately be decided by marginal votes in the SE), but the Scottish electoral scene is undeniably more volatile at the moment. Bigger voting swings may happen, particularly if Brown tries to oppose more powers for Holyrood. There's something like 75% support for that up here - even the Labour group at Holyrood accepts that.
    Yes, the SNP Government / Administration / Parliament / Executive / whatever have been playing their weak hand extremely well so far, it just goes to show how much you can achieve in government even if you're a minority administration.

    If they can stay the course, and navigate past an almost-inevitably-problematic independence poll, I think they'd have a good chance of being a majority administration, or near-as-damnit, in the next election.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Raul View Post
    It makes you wonder whether the Status Quo is so strong that it survives whoever is in power or whether the politicians just do whatever is easiest once they are in.
    Probably because about 94% of the population are better of then 10yrs ago but what do I know ?

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by stewart38 View Post
    Probably because about 94% of the population are better of then 10yrs ago but what do I know ?
    I am not so sure.

    Are you including the thousands who are struggling to make ends meet? The youngsters who are unemployable? The newer generation who have no chance of ever owning their own home? The older generations who have done their bit and find themselves neglected and left behind?

    I sound like a politician!

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    But it's the same picture - only 1 Lab / SNP marginal in the top 50.
    However, there are more Scottish Labour marginals now in the top 100 (mostly with the Tories second) than there were in 2001. But anyway, such a chart generally ignores the fact that most Scottish/Welsh seats have 1 more party in play. Combine that with the prospects for tactical voting, and it effectively makes Scottish/Welsh seats more marginal anyway, under the right circumstances (such as the 1992 election, for instance). Such are the absurdities of first past the post.
    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    If they can stay the course, and navigate past an almost-inevitably-problematic independence poll, I think they'd have a good chance of being a majority administration, or near-as-damnit, in the next election.
    I'd say the SNP's best chance would be if there wasn't a referendum during this Holyrood parliament. They'd be unlikely to win it, and the three Unionist parties could try to force a vote of confidence on the back of it. But generally just now, Salmond is able to paint things as a Unionist/Nationalist divide, thanks to the Lib Dem's remarkably inept handling of the post-election coalition talks. Nicol Stephen is such a numpty.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Well, Cameron's noises on green issues are sufficient to make me want to find out if it's genuine or just opportunism. Avoiding extinction would be a good thing.
    Though Labour ditching Blair is almost enough to make me want to "move on" from Iraq.
    So I get the unusual situation of considering both the main parties for once.

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuart M View Post
    I'd say the SNP's best chance would be if there wasn't a referendum during this Holyrood parliament.
    Absolutely - in a way it's the same position that Labour's in with the Euro referenda, but even more so. They've committed to having one, but they know they (almost certainly) can't win one, and if they lose, they've put back the chances for yet another generation.

    Hmmm, isn't Cameron a Scottish name?

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    Does it, though? I'm not aware of any public Scottish-area polls regarding UK voting intentions, got any links?
    How about this very, very, very unscientific web poll on the Sunday Herald web site...

    VOTE
    If a Westminster election was called today, how would you vote?

    * Conservative 11.5%
    * Labour 14.3%
    * Lib-Dem 6.5%
    * SNP 62.9%
    * Other 4.7%
    It's probably fair to say that the Sunday Herald is the most Independent-friendly newspaper in Scotland, but I was still surprised at the voting on this poll.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. – Steve Martin, LA Story

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    Re: David Cameron? Not a snowballs chance in hell...!

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    It's probably fair to say that the Sunday Herald is the most Independent-friendly newspaper in Scotland, but I was still surprised at the voting on this poll.
    Results like that normally arise when a political activist gets it and forwards it to the entire SNP mailing list urging them to vote.

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