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Thread: Sacred cows

  1. #61
    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post
    Actually, if 99.99% of all subjects were tested accurately [...]
    The figure of 99.99% is on the Shambo web site – but the actual government figure is 99.9%.
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. – Steve Martin, LA Story

  2. #62
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    If we were to assume that the UK cattle population was entirely free of disease, this test would still decide that 10,000 of them were infected. All 10,000 would have been mistakenly killed. It's likely that a lot more than 22 of the 22,000 that were killed last year need not have been.
    1) If the entire UK cattle population was assumed to be entirely free of disease, I doubt our government would fork out the cash for the test in the first place.

    2) If said situation did result in testing, and a low number of cattle were found to be infected then (unless the test method doesn't allow it) I would imagine a re-test would be done on the spurious results. Far cheaper than reimbursing the farmers. The odds of the same cow testing positive in error twice in a row is pretty slim.

  3. #63
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    The figure of 99.99% is on the Shambo web site – but the actual government figure is 99.9%.
    I stand corrected. However, it is still a very small number. My point is that while the method isn't 100% accurate, it will be in the overwhelming majority of cases. Shambo included.

  4. #64
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by Beowulf1970 View Post
    I thought all sort of animals were found appealing to the house of lords. They apparently also find bondage gear and rubber appealing too. If popular press is to be believed that is
    No, no! You're thinking of MPs.

  5. #65
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post
    Presumably bovine TB?

    Well, from a statistical point-of-view, that's pretty damn good. If the test is as simple as described, then I would imagine the number of errant results to be less, not more - the simpler it is, the less there is to mess up. The 'test' for a throat infection is looking into someone's mouth and seeing if their throat is red. Sometimes simple observation is enough.

    Added to that, I doubt the government would pay compensation if the test wasn't deemed sufficiently reliable...otherwise farmers who were a bit hard up could claim their herd had TB, get the first measurement taken, feed them McD's (oh, irony) for the next 48 hours and hopefully get a result.

    Maybe there's no effort been put into finding a better test as improving on 99.99% would be rather tricky... Seriously, though, is there any credible information that a bovine TB test isn't as accurate as advertised? I'd be interested to know if there is or not.
    Er...nothing I could disagree with, there.

    {Purses lips. Looks at ceiling tiles. Drums fingers.}

    Nothing at all.

    <Thinks: that's worrying.>

  6. #66
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    {snip blah}
    Um. Can't we put a minimum time limit for the swapping of avatars? It's making me dizzy. Soon someone will invent some gif program which will produce a new avatar every time you post.

    Which will - um, miss the point, somewaht.

  7. #67
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by ducasi View Post
    If we were to assume that the UK cattle population was entirely free of disease, this test would still decide that 10,000 of them were infected. All 10,000 would have been mistakenly killed. It's likely that a lot more than 22 of the 22,000 that were killed last year need not have been.
    Wrong.

    For a start, we don't know whether the inaccuracy is false positives, or false negatives, or both, and if the last, in what proportion.

    Second, if we were to assume that the UK cattle population was free of the disease, we would either be not testing at all or we may well be using a different test.

  8. #68
    Papa Smurf
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    Re: Sacred cows

    "moo" he said in agreement

  9. #69
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post
    The odds of the same cow testing positive in error twice in a row is pretty slim.
    The always entertaining John Allen Paulos tells the story of the guy who spent an enormous amount of his working life in air travel. He did some research on the probability of being on a plane that had a bomb on board, but he didn't like the outcome - far too high a risk for his liking.

    So he started taking a bomb with him when he travelled by air. His research hadn't revealed one single instance of an aircraft having two bombs on board.

    (This was before the current clampdown, obviously.)

  10. #70
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    Er...nothing I could disagree with, there.

    {Purses lips. Looks at ceiling tiles. Drums fingers.}

    Nothing at all.

    <Thinks: that's worrying.>
    Maybe someone could go back over all the posts in the last few months and work out the probability of the above happening?

  11. #71
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    The always entertaining John Allen Paulos tells the story of the guy who spent an enormous amount of his working life in air travel. He did some research on the probability of being on a plane that had a bomb on board, but he didn't like the outcome - far too high a risk for his liking.

    So he started taking a bomb with him when he travelled by air. His research hadn't revealed one single instance of an aircraft having two bombs on board.

    (This was before the current clampdown, obviously.)


    Ha! Ha ha ha! *wipes tear from eye* Ha ha!

  12. #72
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    Re: Sacred cows

    [QUOTE=andystyle;395587]
    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post
    Maybe someone could go back over all the posts in the last few months and work out the probability of the above happening?
    Now, see, you let yourself down there.

    Probability is, of course, 1 - since it just happened.

  13. #73
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    [QUOTE=Barry Shnikov;395623]
    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post

    Now, see, you let yourself down there.

    Probability is, of course, 1 - since it just happened.


    Whoops. I could try and dig myself out this hole by explaining, but I think I'll just click 'Submit Reply'...

  14. #74
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    Re: Sacred cows

    [QUOTE=andystyle;395642]
    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post



    Whoops. I could try and dig myself out this hole by explaining, but I think I'll just click 'Submit Reply'...
    I know what you meant. You meant - what would the forecast probability have been at 8am this morning!!

  15. #75
    Registered User andystyle's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Looks like Shambo is being retreived from the temple, probably more or less around the time that I am typing this.

  16. #76
    Lovely Moderator ducasi's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by andystyle View Post
    Looks like Shambo is being retreived from the temple, probably more or less around the time that I am typing this.
    Or not!
    Let your mind go and your body will follow. – Steve Martin, LA Story

  17. #77
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    Re: Sacred cows

    The vets don't need to knock themselves out.

    From the Guardian report:

    "Shambo, who is to be put down after failing a bovine tuberculosis test, has been surrounded by up to 100 chanting Hindu worshippers since early on Thursday morning."
    Couple of days of that and the poor animal will probably slit its own throat.

  18. #78
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    Re: Sacred cows

    here

    stupid - why did they ANNOUNCE the time they would turn up and then stick to it. They should have arrived in in the middle of the night before the protestors even got out of bed. stupid !

  19. #79
    Registered User Baruch's Avatar
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    Re: Sacred cows

    It seems that sense and the law have finally prevailed.

  20. #80
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    Re: Sacred cows

    Quote Originally Posted by Baruch View Post
    It seems that sense and the law have finally prevailed.
    Yeah. Once they heard about the 100 chanting Hindus the RSPCA were on the phone demanding the beast be put out of its misery...

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