Page 6 of 9 FirstFirst ... 23456789 LastLast
Results 101 to 120 of 169

Thread: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

  1. #101
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Southampton
    Posts
    6,709
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    Isn't hindsight great?
    Your point being...?

  2. #102
    Commercial Operator
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Northeastern Parts
    Posts
    5,221
    Rep Power
    14

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadful Scathe View Post
    i think the point made above is, no, they are not. You cant kill people legally.
    Are you suggesting that Welshmen aren't people?

  3. #103
    Commercial Operator
    Join Date
    May 2003
    Location
    Northeastern Parts
    Posts
    5,221
    Rep Power
    14

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    Your point being...?
    I think his point is that he should never have accepted that seat on the Enron Board of Directors. Betcha feel silly now, eh Martin?

  4. #104
    Papa Smurf
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Planet Scathe
    Posts
    12,528
    Blog Entries
    6
    Rep Power
    18

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by straycat264 View Post
    Are you suggesting that Welshmen aren't people?
    Yes. The Welsh are not people. They are Gods.

  5. #105
    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Norf Lundin
    Posts
    17,001
    Blog Entries
    1
    Rep Power
    18

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadful Scathe View Post
    Yes. The Welsh are not people. They are Gods.
    In the Pratchettian "Small Gods" sense, you mean?

    Millions of tiny voices, screaming unheard in a vast wilderness, forgotten by everyone except insane people?

    Blimey, that's a bit harsh.

  6. #106
    Registered User Baruch's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2004
    Location
    Pontllanfraith
    Posts
    2,261
    Rep Power
    11

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Dreadful Scathe View Post
    Yes. The Welsh are not people. They are Gods.
    We are? Nobody's been worshipping me lately.

  7. #107
    Papa Smurf
    Join Date
    Jan 2002
    Location
    Planet Scathe
    Posts
    12,528
    Blog Entries
    6
    Rep Power
    18

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Baruch View Post
    We are? Nobody's been worshipping me lately.
    how do you know for sure ?

  8. #108
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Southampton
    Posts
    6,709
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    On the theme of improbability...

    Many people have difficulty with the concept of evolution, misunderstanding it to say that it's a combination of time and blind chance. One of the Hoyles (Fred?) said it was like imagining that a tornado blowing through a junkyard could accidentally create an aircraft.

    It isn't blind chance, however, that powers evolution. It's selection. Variations between one animal and the next lead to unsuccessful variants being disposed of and successful ones goint on into the future.

    Richard Dawkins in one of his books showed how the phrase 'Methinks 'tis very much like a weasel" could be 'evolved' in a very short number of iterations from an initial guess by retaining the correct letters from each guess until the whole phrase was arrived at. The same phrase, if you tried to arrive it simply by guessing and guessing until you matched the complete phrase would take eons.

    So this nice guy has written a program so you can try it out yourself. Put any phrase you like in at the top, click the button, and it'll get there in a few sessions. (No, that doesn't apply to the complete text of the Gettysburg address - don't be silly!)

  9. #109
    Registered User El Salsero Gringo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,881
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    On the theme of improbability...

    Many people have difficulty with the concept of evolution, misunderstanding it to say that it's a combination of time and blind chance. One of the Hoyles (Fred?) said it was like imagining that a tornado blowing through a junkyard could accidentally create an aircraft.

    It isn't blind chance, however, that powers evolution. It's selection. Variations between one animal and the next lead to unsuccessful variants being disposed of and successful ones goint on into the future.

    Richard Dawkins in one of his books showed how the phrase 'Methinks 'tis very much like a weasel" could be 'evolved' in a very short number of iterations from an initial guess by retaining the correct letters from each guess until the whole phrase was arrived at. The same phrase, if you tried to arrive it simply by guessing and guessing until you matched the complete phrase would take eons.

    So this nice guy has written a program so you can try it out yourself. Put any phrase you like in at the top, click the button, and it'll get there in a few sessions. (No, that doesn't apply to the complete text of the Gettysburg address - don't be silly!)
    The problem with this (equally fatuous and equally wrong) example of how Evolution works is that it posits the a priori existence of a correct or optimal solution that somehow has simply to be reached.

    On the airplane idea, it's a little like suggesting that an airplane with one wing and no engines (the rest having still to be evolved) can fly, just not quite as well as one that's fully formed.

  10. #110
    Formerly known as DavidJames David Bailey's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Location
    Norf Lundin
    Posts
    17,001
    Blog Entries
    1
    Rep Power
    18

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by El Salsero Gringo View Post
    The problem with this (equally fatuous and equally wrong) example of how Evolution works is that it posits the a priori existence of a correct or optimal solution that somehow has simply to be reached.
    Surely, in this case, the "correct" solution is the one that works? Or at least, works better than the other solutions?

    If we know that something bestows an evolutionary advantage, then we can attempt to reverse-engineer the process, can't we? Or am I missing something?

    Quote Originally Posted by El Salsero Gringo View Post
    On the airplane idea, it's a little like suggesting that an airplane with one wing and no engines (the rest having still to be evolved) can fly, just not quite as well as one that's fully formed.
    But the ability to fly "a little bit" might help leap from tree to tree - and so on.

  11. #111
    Registered User El Salsero Gringo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,881
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by DavidJames View Post
    Surely, in this case, the "correct" solution is the one that works? Or at least, works better than the other solutions?
    Except that in the weasel case, your test for what works is "what's closest to the original text". In nature, there is no original text. In the weasel case, when you've recovered the original text 100%, that's the end. In nature (leaving aside the suspicion that human ingenuity has put an end to evolution) evolution is a continuing struggle uphill - but facing backwards - so you can't see if you've reached any kind of summit or conclusion, or even if there is one.

    I'm not saying that the weasel example is invalid - but it does ignore or misrepresent a significant concept in the way evolution operates by introducing a (drumroll please!) finish to the process.

  12. #112
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Worcester, UK
    Posts
    4,157
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by Barry Shnikov View Post
    Richard Dawkins in one of his books showed how the phrase 'Methinks 'tis very much like a weasel" could be 'evolved' in a very short number of iterations from an initial guess by retaining the correct letters from each guess until the whole phrase was arrived at. The same phrase, if you tried to arrive it simply by guessing and guessing until you matched the complete phrase would take eons.
    So this nice guy has written a program so you can try it out yourself.
    The applet works differently to the way you describe. The selection program doesn't indicate which letters are correct - instead, it indicates how many correct letters there are in each guess.

  13. #113
    Registered User El Salsero Gringo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,881
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    The applet works differently to the way you describe. The selection program doesn't indicate which letters are correct - instead, it indicates how many correct letters there are in each guess.
    Ok, my bad - but it still has this concept of "correct" - which evolution doesn't.

  14. #114
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    bedford
    Posts
    4,899
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by El Salsero Gringo View Post
    Ok, my bad - but it still has this concept of "correct" - which evolution doesn't.
    Evolution has produced brains, and brains have the concept of "correct", and this has had the effect of directing behaviour, which in turn has directed, and is directing, evolution.

  15. #115
    Registered User El Salsero Gringo's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jan 2005
    Location
    London
    Posts
    4,881
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by bigdjiver View Post
    Evolution has produced brains, and brains have the concept of "correct", and this has had the effect of directing behaviour, which in turn has directed, and is directing, evolution.
    Oh stop being difficult! You know exactly what I mean.

  16. #116
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Mar 2003
    Location
    bedford
    Posts
    4,899
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by El Salsero Gringo View Post
    Oh stop being difficult! You know exactly what I mean.
    Though I suspect neither of us know exactly what I mean.

  17. #117
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Jul 2004
    Location
    Worcester, UK
    Posts
    4,157
    Rep Power
    12

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    The human genome has around 3.2 billion base pairs.
    I wonder how many generations that applet would take to evolve a sentence with 3.2 billion letters.

  18. #118
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Southampton
    Posts
    6,709
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by El Salsero Gringo View Post
    The problem with this (equally fatuous and equally wrong) example of how Evolution works is that it posits the a priori existence of a correct or optimal solution that somehow has simply to be reached.

    On the airplane idea, it's a little like suggesting that an airplane with one wing and no engines (the rest having still to be evolved) can fly, just not quite as well as one that's fully formed.
    O dear, El. Well below your usual standard.

    To state that this doesn't model evolution very well is to state, like Sybil Fawlty's specialist subject on Mastermind - the bleeding obvious. I - and indeed Mr D originally - were quite clear that this is not a demonstration of how evolution works, but a demonstration of the difference between selection and randomness. As such, one must have something against which to match the selection.

  19. #119
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Southampton
    Posts
    6,709
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    The applet works differently to the way you describe. The selection program doesn't indicate which letters are correct - instead, it indicates how many correct letters there are in each guess.
    In terms of what is sought to be demonstrated, this is another distinction without a difference.

  20. #120
    Registered User
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    Southampton
    Posts
    6,709
    Rep Power
    13

    Re: The dangers of believing in the improbable...

    Quote Originally Posted by MartinHarper View Post
    The human genome has around 3.2 billion base pairs.
    I wonder how many generations that applet would take to evolve a sentence with 3.2 billion letters.
    Well evolution has had about 3.8 billion years to play with, so...

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •