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View Full Version : Mild or cold winter ? (or tropical)



stewart38
27th-October-2005, 09:46 AM
Bets being taken now as...

It could hit 72f today here in london on 27th October !!

I know it will probably be 55f in Scotland (:blush: ) but I dont see a snow flake anywhere. :sad: :waycool: :waycool:

TiggsTours
27th-October-2005, 10:02 AM
I don't believe a word any of the weather forecasters ever say anymore! Last winter was supposed to be the coldest on record, it was decidedly warm, this summer was supposed to be the hottest on record, apart from the odd few days, we had some appalling weather, Australia was supposed to have the hottest driest summer last year (our winter), I was there at the time, people in Brisbane were dying in floods, it was awful! And August the 15th was supposed to hit 107 degrees! They forecast that back in April, how could they ever have been that accurate?! I think they haven't got a clue anymore (global warming, and all that) and are going for the scaremongering tactics to make themselves sound important, so they don't all lose their jobs!

stewart38
27th-October-2005, 10:53 AM
I think they haven't got a clue anymore (global warming, and all that) and are going for the scaremongering tactics to make themselves sound important, so they don't all lose their jobs!


Yes but does that mean we shouldnt eat eggs or chicken :yeah:

I fancy a thread on scaremongering but ive done too many recently :sad:

Lynn
27th-October-2005, 11:30 AM
They forecast that back in April, how could they ever have been that accurate?! I think they haven't got a clue anymore (global warming, and all that) and are going for the scaremongering tactics to make themselves sound important, so they don't all lose their jobs!They can't really be that accurate. From what I remember when I was studying climatology (which was a few years ago!), its impossible to accurately forecast the weather more than a number of days in advance - there are simply too many variables. Weather is an extremely complex system. They try to predict weather trends - eg a colder winter - but within that trend there can be weather conditions that very different. So overall a summer may be warmer in that more places get slightly higher temperatures than the previous year, but there might not be as many very hot days as the previous year. Or you can get a very cold period in the midst of an otherwise 'milder' winter. I think they are saying that the trend will go towards hottier drier summers and colder winters.

I often notice its 19 here in Belfast when its 29 in London, shows the regional variations.

I'm hoping it will be very mild 11-14 November.:nice:

stewart38
27th-October-2005, 11:44 AM
They can't really be that accurate. From what I remember when I was studying climatology (which was a few years ago!), its impossible to accurately forecast the weather more than a number of days in advance - there are simply too many variables. Weather is an extremely complex system. They try to predict weather trends - eg a colder winter - but within that trend there can be weather conditions that very different. So overall a summer may be warmer in that more places get slightly higher temperatures than the previous year, but there might not be as many very hot days as the previous year. Or you can get a very cold period in the midst of an otherwise 'milder' winter. I think they are saying that the trend will go towards hottier drier summers and colder winters.

I often notice its 19 here in Belfast when its 29 in London, shows the regional variations.

I'm hoping it will be very mild 11-14 November.:nice:

They look at patterns , blocking low pressure and high pressure patterns over time

So if the pressure patterns are similar to 63/64 or 46/47 then they say there is 66% chance of them repeating them selves

what grade did you get :whistle:

Lynn
27th-October-2005, 11:57 AM
They look at patterns , blocking low pressure and high pressure patterns over time

So if the pressure patterns are similar to 63/64 or 46/47 then they say there is 66% chance of them repeating them selves

what grade did you get :whistle:Yes, they use patterns to predict likely trends, not just pressure, lots of other variables. But as its such a complex system they don't know what variables are going to change, which makes long range forecasting more difficult.

I did climatology amongst other subjects, (one of my best friends at uni went on and did her PhD in it and made a career out of it).

Icey
27th-October-2005, 12:01 PM
According to the Met Office:

Winter forecast Dec-Feb 2005/6

This forecast is produced using a combination of statistical models, such as those used to predict the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and complex climate models with additional interpretation by operational forecasters.

Forecast updated 24 Oct 2005

Our predictions continue to indicate a colder than average winter for much of Europe. If this holds true, parts of the UK — especially southern regions — are expected to have temperatures below normal.

There is also an indication for a drier-than-average winter over much of the UK.

The last eight winters have been relatively mild and perhaps have given the impression that these are 'normal'. The balance of probability is for a winter colder than those experienced since 1995/6.

Confidence in long-range predictions is relatively low compared to our normal short-period forecasts. Typically the broad features of the forecast for the European region are correct two out of every three occasions. Using a traffic light analogy we consider that people should remain on amber alert for the prospect of a colder-than-average winter.

There will be regional variations across the UK this coming winter. For example, historically, when southern and central England experience a harsh winter, it is quite common for parts of Scotland and Northern Ireland to have a mild one.

It is not possible to be specific about forecast temperatures or precipitation for winter 2005/6, but the tables below show a comparison of recent winters and 1995/96 to the long-term average (1971-2000).

Mean Temperature (degrees C) Long-term average 2004/5 2003/4 1995/6
Scotland 2.7 4.0 3.2 1.8
Northern England 3.5 4.6 4.2 2.4
Southern England 4.5 5.2 5.3 3.5
Wales 4.2 5.2 4.8 2.8
Northern Ireland 4.3 5.4 4.8 3.7

Precipitation (millimetres) Long-term average 2004/5 2003/4 1995/6
Scotland 464 543 484 276
Northern England 264 227 298 226
Southern England 220 130 229 290
Wales 447 335 474 326
Northern Ireland 326 303 280 287

The winter forecast will be updated at the end of November.